Congressional Races to Watch in the West

After the 2000 election, six Democrats represented the New West in Congress. By 2008, 17 Democrats were elected in the region. The following analysis of key races has been compiled from public data including FEC spending reports through October 31.

Colorado

3rd Congressional District (Rep. John Salazar, D vs. Scott Tipton, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 20%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 5

In Colorado’s third district, Democratic Congressman John Salazar faces a strong challenge from state Representative Scott Tipton. This district which contains most of Colorado’s mountain counties, the Western Slope and Pueblo has always been a swing district that Salazar has represented since his first election in 2004. It was previously represented by Republican Scott McInnis and then-Democrat Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Salazar fits the district well as a potato seed farmer from the San Luis valley, but the party registration will always be a challenge in this conservative-leaning swing district.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

4th Congressional District (Rep. Betsy Markey, D vs. Cory Gardner, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 16%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 6

Democratic Congresswoman Betsy Markey handily defeated conservative fire-brand Marilyn Musgrave in 2008 during the Obama surge. In 2010, she faces a much tougher election year dynamic and a far less volatile challenger, Republican state Representative Cory Gardner. Markey has worked hard in her two-year tenure to represent the 4^th CD, but the registration disadvantage and general mood forces her to swim upstream to maintain her seat. The largest unknown dynamic will be how much of an impact the American Constitutional Party and Libertarian candidates will have on the race, considering Tom Tancredo may highlight the ACP to conservative voters. In 2006, a third party candidate received 11% of the vote in this district that lies to Denver’s North and East, containing Ft. Collins, Greeley and the bulk of Colorado’s less populated Eastern Plains.

2010 Campaign Spending

7th Congressional District (Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D vs. Ryan Frazier, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 23%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 4

The 7^th Congressional District in Colorado was carved in the 2000 redistricting to be the prototypical swing district. In hotly contested elections, it was first won by Republican Bob Beauprez in 2002 and 2004, but Ed Perlmutter took the district in 2006 and handily held off challengers in 2008. In 2010, this suburban district is seeing another hotly-contested election between Perlmutter and Aurora Councilman Ryan Frazier. As with many races, turnout among this district’s underserved electorate will determine the outcome, as the 7^th typically has some of the lower turnout in the state. Independent money has flowed heavily and late into this expensive media market, with Frazier supporters mainly criticizing Perlmutter on health care votes and as a tax-and-spend liberal. On the other side, Frazier has been criticized for his poor attendance in Aurora City Council meetings and for working for a company that outsources jobs overseas.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

New Mexico

1st Congressional District (Rep. Martin Heinrich, D vs. John Barela, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 42%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 5

The first district on New Mexico consists of Albuquerque, which is the largest metro area in the state. The 2008 election saw New Mexico CD1 elect a Democrat for the first time when Rep. Martin Heinrich won a seat that had been held by Republican Heather Wilson since 1998. The 2010 race for CD1 was highly contested and tight up, with a recent Albuquerque Journal poll giving Barela a 3 point lead.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

2nd Congressional District (Rep. Harry Teague, D vs. Steve Pearce, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 46%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 6

In 2008, Representative Harry Teague won the seat that had been held by Republican Steve Pearce since 2002 and had been a Republican seat since 1980. Representative Teague’s election came in a year when many Democrats were swept in as part of the 2008 Presidential election and when there was no Republican incumbent to challenge. Pearce, who lost the 2008 GOP primary for US Senate, jumped into the race creating a contest between the current and former congressmen. Polling shows this race has been within the margin of error for a year. Keep an eye on the western half of the district, where the Democrats have strength.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Utah

2nd Congressional District (Rep. Jim Matheson, D vs Morgan Philpott, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 6.6%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 15

Jim Matheson was first elected to a Democratic-leaning district in 2000. Republicans tried to gerrymander his district in 2002, but he won re-election despite being a top target of the NRCC. As an independent, western Democrat, Matheson has increased his margin every year since and is expected to win in 2010. With Utah projected to gain a seat in the 2012 census, his performance in 2010 will go a way to determining what happens in redistricting.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Montana

Congressional At Large District (Rep. Denny Rehberg, R vs. Dennis McDonald, D)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 2.2%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 7

The Montana Congressional race has been relatively quiet this year, aside from a boat crash and allegations of mafia ties. Neither party has targeted the race for independent expenditures nor has any public polling been released. However, this race is a key window into 2012 and beyond. Congressman Dennis Rehberg is considered to be a leading Republican candidate for the open 2012 Governor's race or to challenge Democratic Senator Jon Tester.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Arizona

1st Congressional District (Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D vs. Paul Goser, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 16.5%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 6

Prior to Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s election in 2008, this seat was held by a Republican the four previous cycles. With Rick Renzi's retirement in 2008, Kirkpatrick won in a race that did not have an incumbent to challenge in a year that swept-in many Democrats in traditionally Republican districts. Republican Paul Goser is challenging Kirkpatrick in 2010.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

3rd Congressional District (open: Jon Hurlburd, D vs. Ben Quayle, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 17%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 9

Arizona’s 3^rd Congressional District is an open seat when John Shadegg, the Republican incumbent of 8 years, retired. Ben Quayle (R), Jon Hurlburd (D), Michael Shoen (Lib), and Leonard Clark (Green) are vying for the open seat. Quayle won the hotly contested Republican primary, beating 9 other candidates. Quayle is former Vice President Dan Quayle’s son and rose to notoriety in August 2010 when he called President Obama the worse President in American history in an ad. Quayle, thought to win the seat easily, is trailing Hurlburd 44-46% in a recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling October 16-17.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

5th Congressional District (Rep. Harry Mitchell, D vs. David Schweikert, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 14%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 5

Arizona’s 5th Congressional District is in the northeastern part of Maricopa County, including Scottsdale and Tempe. Representative Harry Mitchell has held this seat beginning in 2006, which had previously been held by a Republican for the prior three cycles. The 2010 contest between Mitchell and David Schweikert is a rematch from 2008, where Mitchell won by 9%. A poll conducted by PNW in mid-September showed Representative Mitchell up by only one point over Schweikert. Thirty-two percent of the respondents to this poll also identified themselves as Independents, which will be a key demographic to win for any candidate in this district.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

7th Congressional District (Rep. Raul Grijalva, D vs. Ruth McClung, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 49%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 6

Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is located in the southwestern part of the state and includes Yuma County and parts of La Paz, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz counties. According to the 2000 U.S. Census, 50% of this district identifies themselves as Hispanic. This district was drawn as part of the 2000 redistricting and has been represented by Congressman Raul Grijalva since its creation. Grijalva faces Republican Ruth McClung.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

8th Congressional District (Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D vs. Jesse Kelly, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 17%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 4

In the southeast of Arizona, 8th Congressional District includes Cochise County and parts of Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz counties. This seat was drawn as part of the 2000 redistricting efforts and has traditionally been a Republican-held seat prior to the election of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in 2006. A poll conducted by Ayers, McHenry, and Associates in early September showed Giffords tied with Republican Jesse Kelly.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Nevada

3rd Congressional District (Rep. Dina Titus, D vs. Joe Heck, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 18%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 2

Nevada’s third congressional district was created after the 2000 census to represent the fast growing suburbs around Las Vegas with a balance between Democratic and Republican registration. Much like Colorado’s 7th Congressional district, Nevada’s CD3 has seen a shift toward a slight Democratic registration edge since 2002. Jon Porter represented the district for three terms, until his defeat in 2008 by Dina Titus. In 2010, Titus faces former Republican State Senator Joe Heck who lost his 2008 bid for re-election in the Nevada’s 5th Senate district. Recent polling shows a close race.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Idaho

1st Congressional District (Rep. Walt Minnick, D vs. Raul Labrador, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 7%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 18

In 2008, Walt Minnick surprised the pundits by winning this highly Republican seat. Minnick was expected to be a one-term congressman but he has remained quite popular even in this anti-incumbent environment because he knows his district well and has represented their views in Washington. Republican immigration attorney Raul Labrador defeated Tea Party favorite Vaughn Ward in the GOP primary. Keep an eye on the returns in northern Idaho where Minnick performed well in 2008.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

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Partisan Voting Index by The Cook Report, http://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/pvistate.pdf

Western Voter Issue Drivers

Education is a Compelling Electoral Issue

Despite the recession, we have seen poll after poll show strong opposition to education budget cuts, especially those that result in job losses for educators and increased class sizes. Voters fundamentally believe that the way to make America strong economically is by ensuring our children are equipped with the skills necessary to be competitive in the global economy. In the West, candidates are using education in their paid communications efforts as a defining electoral issue.

In Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and New Mexico, PNW polling shows voters favor approaches to balancing state budgets that avoid cuts to education spending.

o In Colorado, only 25% of likely voters favored cuts to state government spending if that meant cutting K-12 education. Only 16% of Colorado Hispanic voters favored the cuts. [1]

o In New Mexico, only 19% of likely voters favored cuts to state spending including education. Only 17% of New Mexico Hispanic voters favored the cuts. [2]

o In Nevada, 82% of likely voters oppose a proposal to cut $300 million from K-12 education.[3] 70% of Hispanic voters in Nevada believe that state funding for public should be increased.[4]

o Even in deeply conservative Idaho, 81% of likely voters opposed a plan to cut nearly $130 million from K-12 education.[5]

• In the campaign battles, candidates like Sharron Angle (NV) and Ken Buck (CO) have avoided repeating their primary-season calls to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education. In both states, their opponents have attacked them directly for this position.[6]

• Education cuts are especially toxic among the crucial and growing bloc of Hispanic voters. In Nevada, PNW polling among likely Hispanic voters shows 80% opposed to Angle’s position on education funding and eliminating the U.S. Department of Education.[7]

• Education issues are extremely important to younger voters, both 18-29 year olds and voters under 50 with children.

• Ken Buck’s comment about eliminating federal college student loans has been used as a line of attack on television advertisements by the Bennet campaign and DSCC. [8]

Social Issues Continue to Divide Republicans, and Turn off Independents

Conservatives may have overplayed their hand when it comes to social issues. They have sought to use issues such as abortion as a wedge, and it seems to be backfiring. The extreme position some candidates have taken on the abortion issue – outlawing it even in cases of rape, incest, and to protect the health of the woman – puts these candidates and their supporters far out of the mainstream of westerners. It also flies in the face of the anti-government rhetoric of the Tea Party.

• 83% of likely Colorado voters, including 78% of Hispanic voters, do not believe abortion should be outlawed. Only 13% of Colorado voters say that abortion should not be legal.[9]

• In Colorado, a measure has been placed on the 2010 ballot that would not only outlaw abortion, but would also ban many forms of birth control and some fertilization treatments. A similar amendment was defeated in 2008 by over 70% of Colorado voters. A recent Denver Post/Survey USA poll showed only 15% of voters supporting this measure, Amendment 62.[10] Every major Colorado Republican candidate has taken the extreme position on access to abortion services and endorsed the personhood amendment, in order to court support during the GOP primary.[11]

• Ken Buck’s extreme position in support of the personhood amendment and against abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, has been used by both the Bennet campaign and DSCC against him in paid communications.[12]

• PNW polling shows that this amendment increases interest in voting among key Democratic constituencies like single women, 2008 surge voters, and Hispanic voters.[13]

• In a recent poll in Arizona’s 5^th Congressional District, GOP Candidate David Schweikert’s position on abortion was troubling to 66% of likely voters in the district.[14]

Voters Strongly Support the New Energy Economy

The West has been on the front-line of both the emerging “new energy economy” and the debate over where to drill for oil and natural gas. Not only is the West rich in alternative energy resources but westerners understand how critical it is to become independent from foreign oil and to create jobs that can’t be easily outsourced overseas.

• PNW polling shows that voters across the West say that investments in solar & wind energy are a better choice than drilling for oil & natural gas on several key dimensions like “in America’s best interest,” “reducing dependence on foreign oil,” and “creating jobs in your state.”[15]

• Especially after the BP Gulf-oil spill, PNW data confirms that candidates lose support if they take money from oil companies. 79% of likely Colorado voters said they would be less likely to vote for candidate who took tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from big oil companies. 77% said that they would be less likely to vote for someone who supported tax breaks for big oil companies.[16]

Immigration is Not a Top Issue for Hispanic or Anglo Voters

While conservatives are trying to use immigration as a wedge issue, western voters of all ethnic backgrounds and ideologies continue to rank jobs, the economy, and education as their top priorities. That said, PNW has found that western voters want Washington to take action and address immigration reform and border security. Nowhere is the evidence for this stronger than in Arizona. While a majority of voters supported Arizona’s controversial new state immigration law (SB1070), even more voters supported a comprehensive federal immigration solution. Voters supported SB1070, not because of the specifics of the law passed, but because they want to see federal government action on this issue.

• Just after the passage of SB1070, PNW polling in Arizona showed that 73% of likely voters supported comprehensive immigration reform including 76% of those that were identified as Republicans, 74% of Anglo voters, and 73% of Hispanic voters. Only 60% of all voters in the poll supported Arizona’s SB1070.[17]

• PNW polling among Hispanic voters in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas shows that jobs and education top their concerns, above immigration. There is great intensity among Hispanic voters on these issues.

o In Nevada, 50% of Hispanic voters said jobs and the economy is their top concern, while only 18% cited immigration.[18]

o In Texas, immigration was the 5^th highest concern among Hispanic voters behind education, jobs and the economy, reducing household costs, and reducing the national debt.[19]

[1] Myers Research & Grove Insight Poll in Colorado; 600 Likely Voters Statewide; Mar 17-22, 2010

[2] Grove Insight Poll in New Mexico; 600 Likely Voters Statewide; Jan 7-22 2010

[3] Grove Insight Poll in Nevada; 500 Likely Voters Statewide; Jan 24-30, 2010

[4] Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Likely Voters Statewide; Aug 14-19, 2010

[5] Grove Insight Poll in Idaho; 500 Likely Voters Statewide, Mar 10-14, 2010

[6] Harry Reid Campaign, Department of Education video: http://www.mynews4.com/story.php?id=27445&n=122

Michael Bennet Campaign, Department of Education video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUKGym_iVYI.

[7] Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Interviews Statewide; Aug 14-19, 2010

[8] Michael Bennet Campaign, Student Loans video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnA1Y4NxCvY

DSCC Plan Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0d1ZNOWdkI&feature=player_embedded

[9] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Colorado; 600 Statewide Interviews with an oversample of 200 additional Hispanic voters; Sep 8-15, 2010

[10] http://www.denverpost.com/election2010/ci_16249464

[11] Amendment 62 Supporters:

Ken Buck (Senate): http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/07/us/politics/07abortion.html?_r=3

Dan Maes (Governor): http://www.danmaes.com/the-issues/ [Accessed Oct 12, 2010]

Cory Gardner (CD4): video located at http://coloradopols.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=11576

[12] DSCC, Reproductive Health video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC45R8y7gh8&feature=player_embedded

Michael Bennet Campaign, Reproductive Health video: http://www.youtube.com/user/BennetForColorado#p/u/15/8jgTySETM2U

[13] Myers Research Poll in Colorado; 850 Registered Voters; Dec 1-19, 2009

[14] Harstad Research Poll in AZ5; 500 Likely Voters; Sep 13-16,2010

[15] Harstad Research & Westen Strategies Poll in CO, NV, MT; 900 Likely Voters – 300 in each state; Oct 8-13, 2009

[16] Benenson Strategy Group Poll in Colorado; 600 Likely Voters Statewide; July 21-24, 2010

[17] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll; 500 Statewide Interviews with an oversample of 100 additional Hispanic voters; May 6-12, 2010

[18] Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Likely Voters Statewide; Aug 14-19, 2010

[19] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Texas; 500 Hispanic Likely Voters in Harris, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties; Aug 24-31, 2010

Crucial Western Voter Demographics

Long Term Trends Favor Democrats

A report from the Western Rural Development Center at Utah State University shows that the rapid population growth in the West is driven by people in metropolitan areas. In key suburban swing counties, two demographic groups are fueling Democratic success: college educated voters and Hispanics. These key suburban counties that flipped from Bush to Obama in 2008 have both.

2004 Kerry/2008 Obama/Net Shift

• Arapahoe County, CO 47.5%/ 55.3%/ +7.8

• Larimer County, CO 46.6%/ 54.1%/ +7.5

• Jefferson County, CO 46.6%/ 53.6%/ +7

• Valencia County, NM 55.6%/ 43.3%/ +9.7

• Sandoval, NM 48.1%/ 55.6%/ +7.5

• Washoe, NV 47.0%/ 55.2%/ +8.2

In addition, these key suburban/urban counties all showed movement toward Obama:

2004 Kerry/2008 Obama/Net Shift

• Maricopa County, AZ 42.3%/ 44%/ +1.7

• Ada County, ID 37.7%/ 45.9%/ +8.2

• Clark County, NV 51.7%/ 58.4%/ +6.7

• Salt Lake County, UT 37.5%/ 48.7%/ +11.2

Although these areas may swing in 2010, the long-term future is favorable for Democrats.

The Influence of Hispanic Voters in the West Will Continue to Grow

Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the country and their long-term influence in American politics will continue to grow over the next decade. As with all other demographic groups in the West, we expect their overall turnout to be lower than during the 2008 Presidential election. However, it is important to note that the population is young and their percentage of the voting population will continue to expand. Although Latino voters in the West have favored Democrats in the past, it is critical to remember that Latino voters are not a monolithic voting bloc in terms of language preferences, ideology, or issue priorities. Education continues to be a key motivator for this community as it connects a host of values that they rank highly: living the American dream, opportunity, and family.

• In Nevada, 50% of Hispanic voters reported jobs and the economy as the most important issue in determining who to vote for.[1]
• In Texas, 95% of Hispanic voters thought creating jobs and improving the economy was an important factor in deciding to vote in this year’s election. 96% of TX Hispanic voters felt that ensuring children receive the education they need in order to succeed in the future was important in determining to vote.[2]
• In a large-scale study of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, PNW found that:

o 92% say that they are proud to be an American;

o 84% say that they take care of elders in their families;

o 59% display the American flag on their home, car, or workplace.[3]

Independent Voters Remain Key to the West

Many western voters pride themselves as being more independent from political parties than voters in other regions of the country. In states such as Arizona and Colorado, a full third of the electorate are not registered with a political party but are registered as Unaffiliated or Independent.

• Since 2000, the swing states of Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada have all seen a significant increase in the percentage of registered Independent voters and a decrease in the percent of registered Republicans. In New Mexico, the numbers are constant, with a large Democratic registration edge (see Appendix D, pages 15-16 for voter registration trends).

In 2004, 2006, and 2008, these voters often made the critical difference in close elections up and down the ballot throughout the West. The elections of then-Governor Janet Napolitano (AZ-2002), then-Senator Ken Salazar (CO-2004), Governor Brian Schweitzer (MT-2004), Senator John Tester (MT-2006), Congressman Walt Minnick (ID1-2008), Senator Mark Udall (CO-2008), and Senator Tom Udall (NM-2008) are examples of successful Democrats that captured Independent voters. Independent voters chose pragmatic, non-ideological candidates who address the issues most directly related to quality of life: jobs, schools, conservation, and infrastructure like roads, water, and essential public safety services. To win Independent voters, the most successful candidates are seen as being above partisan politics and able to work together to accomplish their goals.

In this election, Independent voters are very much up for grabs. In a recent qualitative and quantitative research project conducted by PNW of these registered Unaffiliated voters in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada, we found that they remain resolutely independent from party labels and are feeling extremely sour towards both political parties.

• 69% of these Unaffiliated voters said that Democrats in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job. Similarly, 68% said Republicans in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job.[4]
• However, these Independent voters gave Democrats in Congress an edge on being the party that “focused on creating new jobs” and “stands with regular people.”[5]
• Many Independent voters tend to be younger (18-49) and are not affiliated with a political party because they are newer to the process.

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[1] Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Likely Voters Statewide; Aug 14-19, 2010

[2] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Texas; 500 Hispanic Likely Voters in Harris, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties; Aug 24-31, 2010

[3] PNW 2008 Hispanic Voter Research Project; 2000 Likely Voter Interviews

[4] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in AZ, CO, NV; 900 Unaffiliated Voters; June 24-30, 2010

[5] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in AZ, CO, NV; 900 Unaffiliated Voters; June 24-30, 2010