Congressional Races to Watch in the West

After the 2000 election, six Democrats represented the New West in Congress. By 2008, 17 Democrats were elected in the region. The following analysis of key races has been compiled from public data including FEC spending reports through October 31.

Colorado

3rd Congressional District (Rep. John Salazar, D vs. Scott Tipton, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 20%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 5

In Colorado’s third district, Democratic Congressman John Salazar faces a strong challenge from state Representative Scott Tipton. This district which contains most of Colorado’s mountain counties, the Western Slope and Pueblo has always been a swing district that Salazar has represented since his first election in 2004. It was previously represented by Republican Scott McInnis and then-Democrat Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Salazar fits the district well as a potato seed farmer from the San Luis valley, but the party registration will always be a challenge in this conservative-leaning swing district.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

4th Congressional District (Rep. Betsy Markey, D vs. Cory Gardner, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 16%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 6

Democratic Congresswoman Betsy Markey handily defeated conservative fire-brand Marilyn Musgrave in 2008 during the Obama surge. In 2010, she faces a much tougher election year dynamic and a far less volatile challenger, Republican state Representative Cory Gardner. Markey has worked hard in her two-year tenure to represent the 4^th CD, but the registration disadvantage and general mood forces her to swim upstream to maintain her seat. The largest unknown dynamic will be how much of an impact the American Constitutional Party and Libertarian candidates will have on the race, considering Tom Tancredo may highlight the ACP to conservative voters. In 2006, a third party candidate received 11% of the vote in this district that lies to Denver’s North and East, containing Ft. Collins, Greeley and the bulk of Colorado’s less populated Eastern Plains.

2010 Campaign Spending

7th Congressional District (Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D vs. Ryan Frazier, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 23%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 4

The 7^th Congressional District in Colorado was carved in the 2000 redistricting to be the prototypical swing district. In hotly contested elections, it was first won by Republican Bob Beauprez in 2002 and 2004, but Ed Perlmutter took the district in 2006 and handily held off challengers in 2008. In 2010, this suburban district is seeing another hotly-contested election between Perlmutter and Aurora Councilman Ryan Frazier. As with many races, turnout among this district’s underserved electorate will determine the outcome, as the 7^th typically has some of the lower turnout in the state. Independent money has flowed heavily and late into this expensive media market, with Frazier supporters mainly criticizing Perlmutter on health care votes and as a tax-and-spend liberal. On the other side, Frazier has been criticized for his poor attendance in Aurora City Council meetings and for working for a company that outsources jobs overseas.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

New Mexico

1st Congressional District (Rep. Martin Heinrich, D vs. John Barela, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 42%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 5

The first district on New Mexico consists of Albuquerque, which is the largest metro area in the state. The 2008 election saw New Mexico CD1 elect a Democrat for the first time when Rep. Martin Heinrich won a seat that had been held by Republican Heather Wilson since 1998. The 2010 race for CD1 was highly contested and tight up, with a recent Albuquerque Journal poll giving Barela a 3 point lead.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

2nd Congressional District (Rep. Harry Teague, D vs. Steve Pearce, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 46%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 6

In 2008, Representative Harry Teague won the seat that had been held by Republican Steve Pearce since 2002 and had been a Republican seat since 1980. Representative Teague’s election came in a year when many Democrats were swept in as part of the 2008 Presidential election and when there was no Republican incumbent to challenge. Pearce, who lost the 2008 GOP primary for US Senate, jumped into the race creating a contest between the current and former congressmen. Polling shows this race has been within the margin of error for a year. Keep an eye on the western half of the district, where the Democrats have strength.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Utah

2nd Congressional District (Rep. Jim Matheson, D vs Morgan Philpott, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 6.6%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 15

Jim Matheson was first elected to a Democratic-leaning district in 2000. Republicans tried to gerrymander his district in 2002, but he won re-election despite being a top target of the NRCC. As an independent, western Democrat, Matheson has increased his margin every year since and is expected to win in 2010. With Utah projected to gain a seat in the 2012 census, his performance in 2010 will go a way to determining what happens in redistricting.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Montana

Congressional At Large District (Rep. Denny Rehberg, R vs. Dennis McDonald, D)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 2.2%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 7

The Montana Congressional race has been relatively quiet this year, aside from a boat crash and allegations of mafia ties. Neither party has targeted the race for independent expenditures nor has any public polling been released. However, this race is a key window into 2012 and beyond. Congressman Dennis Rehberg is considered to be a leading Republican candidate for the open 2012 Governor's race or to challenge Democratic Senator Jon Tester.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Arizona

1st Congressional District (Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D vs. Paul Goser, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 16.5%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 6

Prior to Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s election in 2008, this seat was held by a Republican the four previous cycles. With Rick Renzi's retirement in 2008, Kirkpatrick won in a race that did not have an incumbent to challenge in a year that swept-in many Democrats in traditionally Republican districts. Republican Paul Goser is challenging Kirkpatrick in 2010.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

3rd Congressional District (open: Jon Hurlburd, D vs. Ben Quayle, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 17%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 9

Arizona’s 3^rd Congressional District is an open seat when John Shadegg, the Republican incumbent of 8 years, retired. Ben Quayle (R), Jon Hurlburd (D), Michael Shoen (Lib), and Leonard Clark (Green) are vying for the open seat. Quayle won the hotly contested Republican primary, beating 9 other candidates. Quayle is former Vice President Dan Quayle’s son and rose to notoriety in August 2010 when he called President Obama the worse President in American history in an ad. Quayle, thought to win the seat easily, is trailing Hurlburd 44-46% in a recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling October 16-17.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

5th Congressional District (Rep. Harry Mitchell, D vs. David Schweikert, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 14%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 5

Arizona’s 5th Congressional District is in the northeastern part of Maricopa County, including Scottsdale and Tempe. Representative Harry Mitchell has held this seat beginning in 2006, which had previously been held by a Republican for the prior three cycles. The 2010 contest between Mitchell and David Schweikert is a rematch from 2008, where Mitchell won by 9%. A poll conducted by PNW in mid-September showed Representative Mitchell up by only one point over Schweikert. Thirty-two percent of the respondents to this poll also identified themselves as Independents, which will be a key demographic to win for any candidate in this district.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

7th Congressional District (Rep. Raul Grijalva, D vs. Ruth McClung, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 49%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 6

Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is located in the southwestern part of the state and includes Yuma County and parts of La Paz, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz counties. According to the 2000 U.S. Census, 50% of this district identifies themselves as Hispanic. This district was drawn as part of the 2000 redistricting and has been represented by Congressman Raul Grijalva since its creation. Grijalva faces Republican Ruth McClung.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

8th Congressional District (Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D vs. Jesse Kelly, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 17%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 4

In the southeast of Arizona, 8th Congressional District includes Cochise County and parts of Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz counties. This seat was drawn as part of the 2000 redistricting efforts and has traditionally been a Republican-held seat prior to the election of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in 2006. A poll conducted by Ayers, McHenry, and Associates in early September showed Giffords tied with Republican Jesse Kelly.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Nevada

3rd Congressional District (Rep. Dina Titus, D vs. Joe Heck, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 18%

Partisan Voter Index: D + 2

Nevada’s third congressional district was created after the 2000 census to represent the fast growing suburbs around Las Vegas with a balance between Democratic and Republican registration. Much like Colorado’s 7th Congressional district, Nevada’s CD3 has seen a shift toward a slight Democratic registration edge since 2002. Jon Porter represented the district for three terms, until his defeat in 2008 by Dina Titus. In 2010, Titus faces former Republican State Senator Joe Heck who lost his 2008 bid for re-election in the Nevada’s 5th Senate district. Recent polling shows a close race.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

Idaho

1st Congressional District (Rep. Walt Minnick, D vs. Raul Labrador, R)

Hispanic Voting Age Population: 7%

Partisan Voter Index: R + 18

In 2008, Walt Minnick surprised the pundits by winning this highly Republican seat. Minnick was expected to be a one-term congressman but he has remained quite popular even in this anti-incumbent environment because he knows his district well and has represented their views in Washington. Republican immigration attorney Raul Labrador defeated Tea Party favorite Vaughn Ward in the GOP primary. Keep an eye on the returns in northern Idaho where Minnick performed well in 2008.

2010 Campaign Spending

2008 Results

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Partisan Voting Index by The Cook Report, http://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/pvistate.pdf

Crucial Western Voter Demographics

Long Term Trends Favor Democrats

A report from the Western Rural Development Center at Utah State University shows that the rapid population growth in the West is driven by people in metropolitan areas. In key suburban swing counties, two demographic groups are fueling Democratic success: college educated voters and Hispanics. These key suburban counties that flipped from Bush to Obama in 2008 have both.

2004 Kerry/2008 Obama/Net Shift

• Arapahoe County, CO 47.5%/ 55.3%/ +7.8

• Larimer County, CO 46.6%/ 54.1%/ +7.5

• Jefferson County, CO 46.6%/ 53.6%/ +7

• Valencia County, NM 55.6%/ 43.3%/ +9.7

• Sandoval, NM 48.1%/ 55.6%/ +7.5

• Washoe, NV 47.0%/ 55.2%/ +8.2

In addition, these key suburban/urban counties all showed movement toward Obama:

2004 Kerry/2008 Obama/Net Shift

• Maricopa County, AZ 42.3%/ 44%/ +1.7

• Ada County, ID 37.7%/ 45.9%/ +8.2

• Clark County, NV 51.7%/ 58.4%/ +6.7

• Salt Lake County, UT 37.5%/ 48.7%/ +11.2

Although these areas may swing in 2010, the long-term future is favorable for Democrats.

The Influence of Hispanic Voters in the West Will Continue to Grow

Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the country and their long-term influence in American politics will continue to grow over the next decade. As with all other demographic groups in the West, we expect their overall turnout to be lower than during the 2008 Presidential election. However, it is important to note that the population is young and their percentage of the voting population will continue to expand. Although Latino voters in the West have favored Democrats in the past, it is critical to remember that Latino voters are not a monolithic voting bloc in terms of language preferences, ideology, or issue priorities. Education continues to be a key motivator for this community as it connects a host of values that they rank highly: living the American dream, opportunity, and family.

• In Nevada, 50% of Hispanic voters reported jobs and the economy as the most important issue in determining who to vote for.[1]
• In Texas, 95% of Hispanic voters thought creating jobs and improving the economy was an important factor in deciding to vote in this year’s election. 96% of TX Hispanic voters felt that ensuring children receive the education they need in order to succeed in the future was important in determining to vote.[2]
• In a large-scale study of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, PNW found that:

o 92% say that they are proud to be an American;

o 84% say that they take care of elders in their families;

o 59% display the American flag on their home, car, or workplace.[3]

Independent Voters Remain Key to the West

Many western voters pride themselves as being more independent from political parties than voters in other regions of the country. In states such as Arizona and Colorado, a full third of the electorate are not registered with a political party but are registered as Unaffiliated or Independent.

• Since 2000, the swing states of Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada have all seen a significant increase in the percentage of registered Independent voters and a decrease in the percent of registered Republicans. In New Mexico, the numbers are constant, with a large Democratic registration edge (see Appendix D, pages 15-16 for voter registration trends).

In 2004, 2006, and 2008, these voters often made the critical difference in close elections up and down the ballot throughout the West. The elections of then-Governor Janet Napolitano (AZ-2002), then-Senator Ken Salazar (CO-2004), Governor Brian Schweitzer (MT-2004), Senator John Tester (MT-2006), Congressman Walt Minnick (ID1-2008), Senator Mark Udall (CO-2008), and Senator Tom Udall (NM-2008) are examples of successful Democrats that captured Independent voters. Independent voters chose pragmatic, non-ideological candidates who address the issues most directly related to quality of life: jobs, schools, conservation, and infrastructure like roads, water, and essential public safety services. To win Independent voters, the most successful candidates are seen as being above partisan politics and able to work together to accomplish their goals.

In this election, Independent voters are very much up for grabs. In a recent qualitative and quantitative research project conducted by PNW of these registered Unaffiliated voters in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada, we found that they remain resolutely independent from party labels and are feeling extremely sour towards both political parties.

• 69% of these Unaffiliated voters said that Democrats in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job. Similarly, 68% said Republicans in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job.[4]
• However, these Independent voters gave Democrats in Congress an edge on being the party that “focused on creating new jobs” and “stands with regular people.”[5]
• Many Independent voters tend to be younger (18-49) and are not affiliated with a political party because they are newer to the process.

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[1] Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Likely Voters Statewide; Aug 14-19, 2010

[2] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Texas; 500 Hispanic Likely Voters in Harris, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties; Aug 24-31, 2010

[3] PNW 2008 Hispanic Voter Research Project; 2000 Likely Voter Interviews

[4] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in AZ, CO, NV; 900 Unaffiliated Voters; June 24-30, 2010

[5] Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in AZ, CO, NV; 900 Unaffiliated Voters; June 24-30, 2010