After the 2000 election, six Democrats represented the New West in Congress. By 2008, 17 Democrats were elected in the region. The following analysis of key races has been compiled from public data including FEC spending reports through October 31.
Colorado
3rd Congressional District (Rep. John Salazar, D vs. Scott Tipton, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 20%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 5
In Colorado’s third district, Democratic Congressman John Salazar faces a strong challenge from state Representative Scott Tipton. This district which contains most of Colorado’s mountain counties, the Western Slope and Pueblo has always been a swing district that Salazar has represented since his first election in 2004. It was previously represented by Republican Scott McInnis and then-Democrat Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Salazar fits the district well as a potato seed farmer from the San Luis valley, but the party registration will always be a challenge in this conservative-leaning swing district.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
4th Congressional District (Rep. Betsy Markey, D vs. Cory Gardner, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 16%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 6
Democratic Congresswoman Betsy Markey handily defeated conservative fire-brand Marilyn Musgrave in 2008 during the Obama surge. In 2010, she faces a much tougher election year dynamic and a far less volatile challenger, Republican state Representative Cory Gardner. Markey has worked hard in her two-year tenure to represent the 4th CD, but the registration disadvantage and general mood forces her to swim upstream to maintain her seat. The largest unknown dynamic will be how much of an impact the American Constitutional Party and Libertarian candidates will have on the race, considering Tom Tancredo may highlight the ACP to conservative voters. In 2006, a third party candidate received 11% of the vote in this district that lies to Denver’s North and East, containing Ft. Collins, Greeley and the bulk of Colorado’s less populated Eastern Plains.
2010 Campaign Spending
7th Congressional District (Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D vs. Ryan Frazier, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 23%
Partisan Voter Index: D + 4
The 7th Congressional District in Colorado was carved in the 2000 redistricting to be the prototypical swing district. In hotly contested elections, it was first won by Republican Bob Beauprez in 2002 and 2004, but Ed Perlmutter took the district in 2006 and handily held off challengers in 2008. In 2010, this suburban district is seeing another hotly-contested election between Perlmutter and Aurora Councilman Ryan Frazier. As with many races, turnout among this district’s underserved electorate will determine the outcome, as the 7th typically has some of the lower turnout in the state. Independent money has flowed heavily and late into this expensive media market, with Frazier supporters mainly criticizing Perlmutter on health care votes and as a tax-and-spend liberal. On the other side, Frazier has been criticized for his poor attendance in Aurora City Council meetings and for working for a company that outsources jobs overseas.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
New Mexico
1st Congressional District (Rep. Martin Heinrich, D vs. John Barela, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 42%
Partisan Voter Index: D + 5
The first district on New Mexico consists of Albuquerque, which is the largest metro area in the state. The 2008 election saw New Mexico CD1 elect a Democrat for the first time when Rep. Martin Heinrich won a seat that had been held by Republican Heather Wilson since 1998. The 2010 race for CD1 was highly contested and tight up, with a recent Albuquerque Journal poll giving Barela a 3 point lead.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
2nd Congressional District (Rep. Harry Teague, D vs. Steve Pearce, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 46%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 6
In 2008, Representative Harry Teague won the seat that had been held by Republican Steve Pearce since 2002 and had been a Republican seat since 1980. Representative Teague’s election came in a year when many Democrats were swept in as part of the 2008 Presidential election and when there was no Republican incumbent to challenge. Pearce, who lost the 2008 GOP primary for US Senate, jumped into the race creating a contest between the current and former congressmen. Polling shows this race has been within the margin of error for a year. Keep an eye on the western half of the district, where the Democrats have strength.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
Utah
2nd Congressional District (Rep. Jim Matheson, D vs Morgan Philpott, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 6.6%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 15
Jim Matheson was first elected to a Democratic-leaning district in 2000. Republicans tried to gerrymander his district in 2002, but he won re-election despite being a top target of the NRCC. As an independent, western Democrat, Matheson has increased his margin every year since and is expected to win in 2010. With Utah projected to gain a seat in the 2012 census, his performance in 2010 will go a way to determining what happens in redistricting.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
Montana
Congressional At Large District (Rep. Denny Rehberg, R vs. Dennis McDonald, D)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 2.2%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 7
The Montana Congressional race has been relatively quiet this year, aside from a boat crash and allegations of mafia ties. Neither party has targeted the race for independent expenditures nor has any public polling been released. However, this race is a key window into 2012 and beyond. Congressman Dennis Rehberg is considered to be a leading Republican candidate for the open 2012 Governor's race or to challenge Democratic Senator Jon Tester.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
Arizona
1st Congressional District (Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D vs. Paul Goser, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 16.5%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 6
Prior to Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s election in 2008, this seat was held by a Republican the four previous cycles. With Rick Renzi's retirement in 2008, Kirkpatrick won in a race that did not have an incumbent to challenge in a year that swept-in many Democrats in traditionally Republican districts. Republican Paul Goser is challenging Kirkpatrick in 2010.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
3rd Congressional District (open: Jon Hurlburd, D vs. Ben Quayle, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 17%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 9
Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District is an open seat when John Shadegg, the Republican incumbent of 8 years, retired. Ben Quayle (R), Jon Hurlburd (D), Michael Shoen (Lib), and Leonard Clark (Green) are vying for the open seat. Quayle won the hotly contested Republican primary, beating 9 other candidates. Quayle is former Vice President Dan Quayle’s son and rose to notoriety in August 2010 when he called President Obama the worse President in American history in an ad. Quayle, thought to win the seat easily, is trailing Hurlburd 44-46% in a recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling October 16-17.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
5th Congressional District (Rep. Harry Mitchell, D vs. David Schweikert, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 14%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 5
Arizona’s 5th Congressional District is in the northeastern part of Maricopa County Scottsdale Tempe PNW in mid-September showed Representative Mitchell up by only one point over Schweikert. Thirty-two percent of the respondents to this poll also identified themselves as Independents, which will be a key demographic to win for any candidate in this district.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
7th Congressional District (Rep. Raul Grijalva, D vs. Ruth McClung, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 49%
Partisan Voter Index: D + 6
Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is located in the southwestern part of the state and includes Yuma County La Paz Santa Cruz
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
8th Congressional District (Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D vs. Jesse Kelly, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 17%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 4
In the southeast of Arizona Cochise County Santa Cruz
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
Nevada
3rd Congressional District (Rep. Dina Titus, D vs. Joe Heck, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 18%
Partisan Voter Index: D + 2
Nevada’s third congressional district was created after the 2000 census to represent the fast growing suburbs around Las Vegas with a balance between Democratic and Republican registration. Much like Colorado’s 7th Congressional district, Nevada’s CD3 has seen a shift toward a slight Democratic registration edge since 2002. Jon Porter represented the district for three terms, until his defeat in 2008 by Dina Titus. In 2010, Titus faces former Republican State Senator Joe Heck who lost his 2008 bid for re-election in the Nevada’s 5th Senate district. Recent polling shows a close race.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
Idaho
1st Congressional District (Rep. Walt Minnick, D vs. Raul Labrador, R)
Hispanic Voting Age Population: 7%
Partisan Voter Index: R + 18
In 2008, Walt Minnick surprised the pundits by winning this highly Republican seat. Minnick was expected to be a one-term congressman but he has remained quite popular even in this anti-incumbent environment because he knows his district well and has represented their views in Washington. Republican immigration attorney Raul Labrador defeated Tea Party favorite Vaughn Ward in the GOP primary. Keep an eye on the returns in northern Idaho where Minnick performed well in 2008.
2010 Campaign Spending
2008 Results
Partisan Voting Index by The Cook Report, http://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/pvistate.pdf
