2010 Election Scorecard for the West

Project New West has compiled our 2010 election scorecard for the West.

This election scorecard is an initial report of race results for some of the major races in AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, and WY. Please note it is not comprehensive and the results are unofficial. PNW will be providing additional updates and analysis of the 2010 elections.

Reid, Bennet, and Hickenlooper - A Western Story Worth Tellin'

Not that long ago, it would have been almost unthinkable that the West would be the firewall for Democratic control of the Senate this election. The influence of this region in American politics will continue to grow as we look forward to 2012 and beyond due to a variety of factors including population growth, the rising influence of Hispanic voters and the powerful role that Independent voters play in the West. Now that results are almost all in, Project New West is beginning to look under the hood at the trends that shaped 2010 and what this means for the future.

Western Independence: In the West, the truth is that you can’t paint the region with one broad brush stroke and neither party should take any state or demographic group for granted. President Obama’s path to victory in 2012 will likely run through Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico - states that should never be put in the category of red or blue, because that’s not how Westerners view ourselves or our candidates. That independent streak is one of the key reasons why Senator Harry Reid, Senator Michael Bennet and Governor-elect John Hickenlooper won their races. They understood that Westerners want problem solvers and not partisan ideologues.

Any candidate who does not have a deep understanding of our region’s profound culture of independence will have a blurred vision of how the West is won. The “Tea Party” candidates of the West faired so poorly because they did not reach out to independent voters and members of the other party. Sharron Angle even refused to talk to media outlets that she didn’t consider friendly. Westerners reject that kind of approach.

Based on exit polling, Senator Reid, Senator Bennet and Governor-elect Hickenlooper won a solid majority of voters in the West who identify themselves as moderates. Project New West has spent a lot of time trying to understand the electorate beyond party labels. One key metric is whether voters consider themselves to be liberal, moderate or conservative. PNW internal polling throughout the cycle showed that moderate voters were leaning Democratic and the public exit polls are confirming this stayed true through election night.

In Colorado, moderate voters made up 38% of the vote – and they went for Bennet 60-36%. In the Governor’s race, Hickenlooper polled 64% among moderates, Republican Dan Maes received 10% and former Republican congressman Tom Tancredo had 25% on the American Constitution Party ticket. These 2010 numbers are very close to Obama’s 2008 performance when he was supported by 63% of moderates in Colorado. Compare that to 2004 when John Kerry only won 54% of Colorado’s moderates and lost the state.

In Nevada, moderate voters supported Senator Reid 65%-31% and made up 41% of the vote. Senator Reid actually outperformed President Obama, who had 64% in 2008. In 2006 in Nevada, Democratic candidate Jack Carter only won 49% of Nevada moderates in a loss to Senator John Ensign.

Hispanics in the West: Another critical factor in the West is the role Hispanic voters will continue to play as their numbers grow in this region and across the country. For example, turnout in Nevada among Hispanic voters was at record levels for a non-presidential year. According to Catalist voter file analysis of the early and absentee voters, the number of Hispanics who early voted in Nevada nearly doubled since 2006, representing a 3.4 point or 44% increase. Hispanics in Nevada represented an equal share of the 2010 early/absentee vote as they did in 2008 early/absentee. In Colorado, Hispanic early and absentee voters represented 0.9% more of the electorate than in 2006 and only 1.6% less than 2008.

A key factor in understanding Hispanic turnout and candidate preference is to understand that this community is not monolithic in its issue priorities, socio-economic background or language usage. In this election cycle, we saw Hispanic voters were no different than the general electorate. Their priorities were jobs, the economy, education and health care. However, immigration became a factor when conservative candidates used it as a vehicle to conduct racially charged campaigns against their Democratic opponents. If Democrats continue to fight for issues important to Hispanics they will continue to garner their support.

In 2010, two Republican Hispanic candidates for Governor won – Susana Martinez in New Mexico and Brian Sandoval in Nevada. However, Hispanic voters overwhelming supported the Democratic candidate in those races based on PNW’s polling of Hispanic early voters. Rory Reid received 66% of the Hispanic early voter and Diane Denish had 21 point advantage over Susana Martinez among New Mexico Hispanic early voters. Why? Because Hispanic voters just like women, chose their candidate preference based on issues not identity.

Gender in the West: We are also seeing that gender played a significant role in western races. According to national congressional exit polls, men voted Republican 55% to 42% Democratic in Congressional exit polls. On the flip side, women were closely divided between Democrats and Republicans, 49 – 48%, compared to 57-43% in 2008. However, we have noticed something unique in Colorado and Nevada where westerners bucked national trends.

In Nevada, Harry Reid won women voters by 11 points, 53-42%, and only lost men by 2 points, 46-48%. In Colorado, the gap was ever greater, Michael Bennet won the female vote by 17 points, 56-39%, and lost men by 10%, 54-40. In the race for Governor, John Hickenlooper tied Tom Tancredo among men with 44% each, but Hickenlooper beat Tancredo by 30 points, 59-29% among women.

So why were Senators Reid and Bennet and Governor-elect HIckenlooper so much more successful at appealing to both women and men than Democratic candidates in other parts of the country? A big reason was that their opponents used social issues to motivate their conservative base in a region that takes a “live and let live” approach. Western voters want to see a government focused on jobs and the economy, supporting education, and providing community services to support our unique Western quality of life. They don’t want the government intruding into their personal lives.

Looking at the West as a whole, Democrats have made significant gains in the past decade. In 2000, Democrats had zero Governors, 3 Senate seats and only 6 of 25 congressional seats. After 2008, they held 5 Governorships, 17 of the 28 seats in Congress and 7 U.S. Senate seats. In 2010, Western Democrats felt the anti-incumbent anger, particularly towards Congress and they now hold 10 congressional seats, 2 Governorships and 7 U. S. Senate seats. The winners and losers of the West going forward will be determined by who digs deep to understand our region, our values and our voters.

Note that Project New West compiled this information from our internal polling and analysis, Catalist analysis and publicly available Edison Research exit poll data access from CNN on November 3, 2010. Exit poll results occasionally shift as the data is weighted to accurately reflect the electorate, particularly among sub-groups.

Find this article posted at the Huffington Post.

SENATOR REID TIED WITH ANGLE AMONG EARLY VOTERS

Senator Harry Reid is tied with Sharron Angle among those who voted early and by mail in Nevada. The automated poll conducted by Project New West and America Votes of 3,244 Nevadans showed both candidates receiving 47% of the vote from those who have already cast their ballot.

Not surprisingly, respondents to the poll said the major issue drivers in this election were jobs and the economy (43%), healthcare (19%) and education (8%).

The Project New West/America Votes poll was conducted October 29 – 30, 2010, among 3,244 respondents dialed from a list of Nevada residents that had already voted. The survey was conducted using integrated voice response (IVR) technology and has a margin of error of +/- 1.72 % at a 95% confidence interval.

Battles for Statehouses

Looking at State Legislature control, there are four key states to look at tonight. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and Nevada all have the potential to change control in at least one of their chambers.

Contentious budget battles will be waged in each state as they aim to rectify revenue shortfalls. With Nevada and Arizona continuing to have high unemployment rates, 14.4% and 9.7%[i] respectively, along with some of the worst foreclosure rates in the country (Nevada ranks #1 with Arizona close behind at #3[ii]) both states will face considerable challenges as they approach this coming session.

The other major priority in the coming session will be redistricting. Both Arizona and Nevada are projected to gain a Congressional seat each in reapportionment, Colorado maintaining its seven seats and Montana remaining to have a single at large seat.

The redistricting process is different for each of these states. However, final approval must be voted on by the Legislature and approved by the Governor. For a listing of each state's process NSCL is a good resource.

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[i] http://www.bls.gov/lau/

[ii] http://www.cnbc.com/id/39650403

Colorado's Amendment 62 – The “Personhood” Ballot Measure

In Colorado, Amendment 62 has been placed on the 2010 ballot that would define a fetus as a human being and therefore not only outlaw abortion, but it would also ban many forms of birth control and some fertilization treatments. A similar amendment was defeated in 2008 by over 70% of Colorado voters. A poll conducted in late in 2009 by PNW indicated that many segments of the electorate – including many considered to be surge voters from 2008 – would be motivated to turn out to vote against this measure if it were to make it on the CO ballot in 2010.

In 2008 most Colorado Republicans opposed the Personhood measure. But, early in the primary election season this election cycle, most if not all of the major Colorado Republican candidates for office supported the “Personhood” measure in order to court support during the GOP primary. Poll after poll has shown that a majority of Coloradoans oppose this measure and we are seeing candidates in the general election back away from their earlier support of it. Project New West’s poll of early voters in Colorado shows that 60% of voters reject Amendment 62. Since his initial endorsement, U.S. Senate candidate Ken Buck has attempted to distance himself on this initial endorsement of this measure.

Western Ballot Measure Preview

Ballot measures were a signature mark of the Progressive era at the turn of the 20^th century. The West continues to be the predominant region in the country where ballot measures occur. This year voters were asked to decide on a host of issues through the ballot measure process that tackle the size and scope of government and severely diminishing public services. Many of these measures, like those in Colorado, take an extreme position in limiting government, rolling back the federal health care reform package and addressing social issue ranging from abortion to marijuana.

Economy & Taxes

In Colorado, three conservative anti-government measures on the 2010 ballot (Amendments 60, 61, and Proposition 101) have been opposed by a large left-right coalitions including the Chamber of Commerce and labor unions. All three measures are trailing badly in recent polls.^[1]

The citizen-initiated measures are the most controversial and significant. Amendment 60 would cut in half the property taxes for school districts and require the state to make up the difference. It would impose property taxes on authorities and enterprises while repealing previous local voter-approved decisions on property taxes. It would charge property taxes for existing public entities such as airports, hospitals and water authorities through an amendment to the Colorado constitution. An estimated 8,000 teaching jobs will be cut and class sizes would increase proportionally.

Amendment 61 would forbid the state to borrow for long-term public construction projects (Colorado’s Constitution requires that the state balance its budget annually). Local governments would be required to limit their bonding to 10 years, and constrict the bonding limits to a fraction of current levels. Essentially it would eliminate the ability for Colorado to build universities, prisons, highways, museums or other large public projects. It limits cities’ ability to invest in long-term essential public services such as sewage treatment plants, public transportation, libraries, roads, and schools because the 10-year time frame would increase taxpayers’ payments. It would also require a public vote on leasing equipment such as copying machines.

Vehicle fees support local governments’ road and bridge maintenance, local school districts and other local funding. Telecommunications fees support 9-1-1 emergency services. Income taxes support Colorado’s higher education, health care, K-12 education and corrections. Proposition 101 would drastically reduce all of these and create a larger deficit for Colorado’s budget, impacting education, children’s services, public safety and health care. It would reduce vehicle fees that pay for local street maintenance to 1919 levels. A freeze in fees for 9-1-1 services would also prevent growing communities from providing adequate emergency services.

Montanans will vote on a controversial payday lending ballot measure that will cap interest rates on payday loans as 36% (Initiative I-164). Currently the limit on payday loan interest rates is 650%. Proponents argue that Montana working families deserve the ability to get out of the cycle of debt, and that this loan cap will be a step in that direction. The initiative has broad support from the Montana electorate. Opponents appealed the measure earlier this year—appeals which the Montana State Supreme Court denied.[2]

Marijuana

Two states in the West have ballot measures that center around legalizing marijuana. Arizona’s Proposition 203 would legalize medicinal marijuana in the state, similar to Colorado’s current law, passed in 2008. California’s Prop 19 would legalize marijuana. In California, proponents say that legalizing marijuana would create a $1.7 billion industry in a state with severe budget woes. Those over 21 would be able to possess up to one ounce of marijuana for personal use and marijuana could be grown in gardens larger than 25 square feet. In late October, an LA Times poll shows that voters oppose this measure 51-39%.[3]

Colorado, which passed a law allowing medicinal marijuana in 2008, has 26 counties that are considering passing laws which regulate or ban marijuana dispensaries.

Health Care

Arizonans are asked to vote to eliminate the state’s First Things First early child care program. This program would eliminate essential services such as quality child care, early literacy programs, oral health treatments for children, and programs that work to prevent childhood obesity. This proposition was made in order to help balance the state’s budget.

Colorado (Amendment 63), Arizona (Proposition 106), and Oklahoma (Question 756) have a “health care nullification” measure on the 2010 ballot. This measure gives voters the option of opting out of the Affordable Health Care Act—which would, in effect, create thousands of people without health care and place an enormous burden on the already-stressed hospitals and emergency rooms to provide costly care for these uninsured.

Colorado's Amendment 63 is designed to prohibit the state from imposing either a federal or state mandate requiring a person to purchase health care coverage. An individual mandate is one of the significant provisions in the federal health care reform legislation - Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Government

In Arizona, Proposition 111 looks to remake the state’s officeholders by eliminating the position of Secretary of State and transferring those duties to the Lt. Governor. Arizona does not currently have a position of Lt. Governor. Proponents of this Proposition cite government transparency and continuity as their motivation and include Governor Brewer and the Chamber of Commerce. Opponents say that a Lt. Governor that runs on a joint ticket with the governor would create a conflict of interest, as the Lt. Governor would also be the Chief of Elections.[4]

A measure on the ballot in Nevada would allow for the governor to appoint judges to open seats. Judges would have to run for reelection after serving 2 years. Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor supports this measure and proponents say that passing the measure would take politics out of the state’s judicial systems.

Anti-Union Measures

Voters in Arizona and Utah will see a measure called “Save Our Secret Ballot” which is diametrically opposed to the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), which allows workers the freedom to choose to unionize. “Save Our Secret Ballot” would require workers to vote for or against unionizing using a secret ballot. Funders of this measure have right-wing corporate interests. These measures would not have much impact on local laws—however, they would seriously impact EFCA from passing in future Congressional sessions.

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[1] http://www.denverpost.com/election2010/ci_16249464

[2] http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_ce75da20-ab1b-11df-89b3-001cc4c002e0.html

[3] http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-mew-prop19-poll-20101023,0,2940971.story

[4] http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/2010-proposition-111-lieutenant-governor

CO EARLY VOTE POLL SHOWS BENNET UP BY 1 GOING INTO ELECTION DAY

Abortion/ Personhood Amendment plays key role in keeping vote close

Denver, CO -- Project New West, in conjunction with America Votes, conducted a large Colorado poll over the weekend of voters who already cast their ballots this election. In 2008, 79% of the Colorado electorate voted before Election Day.

The automated poll of 1,836 Coloradans indicated that Senator Michael Bennet had a slight edge over Ken Buck among people who already voted - 47% to 46%. This is significant in light of the fact that there have been a larger proportion of registered Republicans voting early than Democrats. According to the Colorado Secretary of State on Monday, Republicans had a 61,520 person advantage of ballots cast by their party via mail and in person. With more than a million ballots returned thus far, Colorado looks to be headed toward record turnout in a midterm election and the U.S. Senate contest could go down to the wire, as Bennet’s lead is within the margin of error (+/- 2.29).

Bennet leads unaffiliated voters with 51% and is garnering support from nearly two thirds (65%) of Hispanic voters. Women are also outpacing men in turnout among early voters 52-48% and Bennet leads women by four points.

“The four point gender gap highlights the major role abortion and social issues have taken in the Colorado Senate race,” said Project New West President Jill Hanauer. “No one expected these issues to be front and center and in Colorado, conservatives lose this conversation.“

Among voters supporting Buck, the support for the so-called personhood amendment, on the ballot today, is split with 38% of Buck voters saying they voted against Amendment 62 and 47% saying they voted to pass the amendment. By contrast, only 6% of Bennet supporters registered their support for the amendment. It is clear that the issue caused a wedge among Buck’s traditional base and cost him votes, at least among this early voting sample. The so-called personhood amendment was put on the 2010 ballot in Colorado by citizens’ initiative even after a similar measure was defeat in 2008 by over 70% of Colorado voters.

For either candidate to win today, they needed to appeal to unaffiliated voters, who have been slower to return their ballots or vote early. Field efforts on both sides of the aisle have been geared to persuade independent voters and then to get their supporters to the polls.

The Project New West/America Votes poll was conducted October 29 – 31, 2010, among 1,836 respondents dialed from a list of Colorado residents that had already voted. The survey was conducted using integrated voice response (IVR) technology and has a margin of error of +/- 2.29 % at a 95% confidence interval.